The most useful story in September’s numbers is the relationship between supply, contracts, and prices. More inventory gives buyers additional choices. Fewer homes under contract suggest a softer transaction pipeline. Prices, however, do not always move at the same speed as activity.

The following figures come from the ARMLS September 2026 report published October 9. Its filters are set to All, so this is broad ARMLS market context rather than a Phoenix-city-only analysis. [1]

September at a glance

*Excludes UCB/CBS. **Includes Pending/UCB/CBS. Source: ARMLS, report PDF pages 2–5. [1]

Inventory rose, giving buyers more to compare

Active listings reached 25,255 in September, an increase of 1,843 homes from August. That is a 7.87% monthly increase and a 4.39% increase from September 2025. New listings totaled 9,345, up 14.97% from August. [1, pp. 2–3]

For buyers, a larger selection can mean more opportunities to compare condition, location, and asking price. For sellers, it means a home competes against a broader set of alternatives. The practical advantage still depends on the neighborhood and price range; a well-positioned property can attract strong interest even when the broader market slows.

Contracts weakened, but closings edged higher

Under-contract listings fell to 6,049, down 10.48% from August and 10.40% from a year earlier. Closed sales, in contrast, increased 2.22% month over month to 5,673, although they were 6.74% below September 2025. [1, pp. 2–3]

These measures describe different stages of a transaction. September closings can reflect agreements reached earlier, while the under-contract count describes the pipeline at the reporting point. A lower under-contract count suggests softer pipeline activity, but it is not a direct count of newly signed contracts and does not by itself predict next month’s closings.

4.45 months of supply: More room to negotiate

Reported supply increased from 4.22 months in August to 4.45 in September, compared with 3.98 a year earlier. The absorption rate was 22.46%. [1, p. 4]

Months of supply relates available inventory to the sales pace. It is a market-wide estimate, not a prediction that a particular home will take 4.45 months to sell. Combined with rising inventory and fewer homes under contract, it supports my interpretation that buyers are gaining leverage. It does not establish that every area is a buyer’s market.

The median price held at $450,000

September’s median sales price was $450,000, up 1.12% from August’s $445,000 and unchanged from September 2025. The average sales price was $586,281, up 1.44% month over month and 1.98% year over year. [1, p. 5]

Other measures add nuance. The median closed-sale price per square foot was $251.51, up 0.97% from August but 0.11% below a year earlier. The median sales price was also 1.10% below its March level of $455,000. [1, pp. 2, 5]

A flat median does not mean every home held its value. Changes in the types, sizes, and locations of homes sold can affect aggregate prices. From an appraisal perspective, recent comparable sales and the subject’s competitive market remain more useful than applying a regional percentage to an individual property.

Homes took longer than in spring

Median days on market was 63 in September, compared with 64 in August, 55 in March, and 66 in September 2025. Marketing time was about 15% longer than in March, but slightly shorter than both the prior month and the same month last year. Average days on market was 86. [1, p. 5]

That mixed comparison matters. September was slower than spring by this measure, but it was not slower in every comparison. Sellers should build their expectations around competing listings and recent neighborhood sales rather than assuming one market-wide timeline fits all homes.

What September means for buyers and sellers

For buyers: More selection may create opportunities to negotiate price, repairs, or concessions. Compare the full cost and condition of each option; a price reduction alone does not establish value.

For sellers: Price against the homes buyers can choose today. Condition, presentation, and a realistic asking price become more consequential as alternatives increase. A stable regional median does not guarantee that an individual listing can maintain an ambitious price.

For homeowners: These numbers provide context, but a refinancing, estate, divorce, or sale decision requires evidence relevant to the specific property and valuation date.

Looking toward the rest of fall

I will be watching whether the contract pipeline improves, whether inventory continues to grow, and whether sellers adjust prices or offer more concessions. If inventory rises while contract activity stays weak, negotiating pressure could increase. That is a conditional outlook, not a forecast from ARMLS.

September suggests a market in which buyers have more room to compare and sellers have more competition, while aggregate sales prices remain relatively steady. The next question is whether that balance persists into fall.